By Lefteris Adilinis
Players involved in Cyprus talks agree that a final deal now depends on whether Greek Cypriots, Turkish Cypriots and Turkey can reach a crucial understanding on territorial adjustment and, more importantly, on the prickly aspect of security and guarantees.
On Sunday, Republic of Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci will start a second summit at Mont Pelerin in Switzerland, where they are expected to iron out the remaining differences on territory.
The current thinking, however, suggests that the final line on a map will be drawn at a multi-party conference where security and guarantees will be the first item on the agenda.
Taking the publicly-expressed positions on security at face value, the sides could not be further apart. Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots demand the continuation of guarantees, although they acknowledge that the relevant treaty of 1960 should be updated. They aim to keep a small number of troops in Cyprus, stationed in a military base in the north. They also want the Turkish Cypriots, if needed, to be able to call on Ankara to intervene.
Greek Cypriots and Greece have a different public stance. Athens says it is seeking the abolition of guarantees and the full withdrawal of Turkish troops. Along with Nicosia, Greece proposes the deployment of an international police force on the island, with no Greek or Turkish police officers in it.
Security aspects
Despite the public bravado, behind the scenes the sides are seeking a security formula that could be accepted by all parties involved. The Cyprus Weekly understands that different ideas are currently being floated in diplomatic and Cypriot circles. The objective is to find a security policy providing for different needs and addressing a variety of threats.
• Individual security: Greek Cypriots should feel secure in a Turkish Cypriot constituent state and vice versa.
• Communal security: The Turkish Cypriot constituent state cannot attack the Greek Cypriot state and vice versa.
• State security: What to do if an enemy force attacks Cyprus.
• Regional and international security: How a federal Cyprus will participate in security efforts abroad.
Specific threats
The two sides in Cyprus have different security concerns. The Turkish Cypriots are afraid of the Greek Cypriots, while the latter fear Turkey. Diplomats and experts point out that, to allay fear, the two sides and the UN should outline responses to specific threats such as the following ‘what if’ scenarios:
• The Turkish side puts up obstacles to the process of returning land to Greek Cypriots.
• The Greek Cypriots (as remote as it may sound) take up arms and march into the Turkish Cypriot constituent state.
• Actions by extreme nationalist or even terrorist groups.
• Greek Cypriots preventing Turkish Cypriots from having access to, or participating in, the federal government.
• An external threat from a third country.
Diplomats believe that answers to these specific questions could provide a framework for a security formula that could serve both constituent states of a federal Cyprus.