By Lefteris Adilinis
The idea of a velvet divorce in Cyprus has started to gain ground in the current round of talks for the first time, the Cyprus Weekly has learned.
Discussions are taking place modestly for now at the periphery of the talks, waiting to see if leaders Nicos Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci will draw aces and achieve reunification or come close to a deal by the end of the year.
Already, though, some actors appear to be asking how Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots would profit from a complicated deal like the one currently discussed that will make reunification difficult to implement.
“Why not negotiate the partition instead?”it has been suggested.
Initially, talk of formalising separation started doing the rounds on the island in the aftermath of the split 2004 Annan Plan referendum. People on both sides of the Green Line were seriously considering the notion.
Nowadays, though, the Cyprus Weekly understands that the idea of a divorce has also been expressed by players from abroad. No negotiating plan has been developed, but one devolution process envisaged would see good neighbourly relations between the two distinct political entities of the island, with Turkish Cypriots perhaps taking European Economic Area (EEA) status with the support of Greek Cypriots. That is maintaining minor ties at best, while being masters of their own houses.
Reluctant leaders
Anastasiades and Akinci are unwilling even to entertain this notion. Sources close to the talks told the Cyprus Weekly that the President will not consider anything less than reunification of the island in a workable federal state. The current model runs deep in the Greek Cypriot political psyche, and has clear economic and geopolitical advantages.
The Turkish Cypriot leader shares the same objective, although his motives are different.
Many people in the north believe that a settlement would ease the tight grip of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey, whereas they anticipate clear economic and political advantages of full EU membership.
Right now, the UN and mediators want to see if the leaders will manage to find common ground by mid-September and enter a kind of endgame in October, immediately after attending the UN General Assembly in New York.
A senior diplomat told the Cyprus Weekly that if the leaders cannot come up with some concrete agreement by the end of the year, then their argument of “continuing negotiations on the same model of settlement would not be attractive”.
Different circumstances
In January 2017 a new UN Secretary General will take over from Ban Ki-moon and there is no guarantee that he will keep the same people in the Good Offices mission in Cyprus and New York.
As a result, the jobs of special advisor Espen Barth Eide, and mission chief Elisabeth Spehar hangs in the balance.
Also a new US administration would be installed in the White House replacing key Barack Obama people such as Vice President Jo Biden, Secretary of State John Kerry and his deputy Victoria Nuland. These are people who know the Cyprus problem and have worked for its solution.