By Lefteris Adilinis
Greek Cypriot political leaders coming out of the National Council’s meeting this week painted a very bleak picture for the future of the peace process.
Sources from the two larger political parties, Disy and Akel, told the Cyprus Weekly that talks seem to have reached a dead end, and that if this is confirmed by early July, the bi-zonal, bi-communal model for a settlement would be dead and buried.
It is now a well-established fact that in the National Council’s meeting on Monday, Republic of Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades appeared to believe a deadlock in the talks was imminent.
However, this is a completely different reading from the one the Cyprus Weekly received by talking to sources close to the UN-backed negotiations.
We understand that in the last negotiators’ meetings, Andreas Mavroyiannis and Ozdil Nami have, in fact, made good progress on controversial issues, such as the effective participation of Turkish Cypriots in the federal state, as well as allowing Turkish citizens in Cyprus to enjoy the EU four freedoms (movement, capital, goods and services).
Political reading
Anastasiades and Akinci, though, appear not to be taking into account this progress. Both leaders have embarked on the blame game, a development that usually precedes the declaration of a deadlock. The Cyprus Weekly talked to diplomats with extensive experience of the Cyprus negotiations. All agreed that the current process has to produce concrete results by early July.
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French energy giants Total is scheduled to start drilling for gas in Cyprus’s EEZ on July 13 and Turkey is expected to react strongly, a development that would certainly affect the peace process. Also, by that time the campaign for the RoC presidential elections will be in full swing.
Interlocutors have pointed out that if the current talks reach an impasse, then it would be almost impossible, after the RoC elections and the drilling activities in the EEZ, for the two sides to pick up negotiations from where they left off.
“We have to be honest with the sides and with ourselves. A failure now would mean that the federal model for a settlement would become obsolete and a new model or a new arrangement has to be found for Cyprus,” said one diplomat.
The scenarios
Our discussions with Cypriot and foreign diplomatic sources produced the following scenarios for a new approach that would replace a federal model for the island.
Taiwan-type of arrangement for north: Greek and Turkish Cypriots will try to agree a framework for giving the northern part of the island a Taiwan-type of autonomy. In this case, the north will be recognised as a separate political entity (not a state) that can forge its own commercial and other relations with the international community.
The RoC will carry on claiming that the north is part of its territory, in the way that China does with Taiwan. Also, the two sides will have to agree the percentage of land to be returned to the Greek Cypriots, as well as to reach an agreement on the property issue, with Greek Cypriots accepting compensation as the only remedy. Turkish Cypriots would not be able to hold citizenship of both the RoC and the ‘TRNC’.
Energy will be the last issue to be resolved in a Taiwan-type of arrangement. It could only involve Turkish Cypriots getting part of any future profits from gas sales, with their actual share subject to negotiations.
Velvet divorce: Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots will negotiate full partition. Again, they would have to reach agreement on territorial adjustments and on a property arrangement on the basis of compensation and possibly exchange. In this case, there would be two states active on the island.
The two sides would need to divide not only the land but also the offshore Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and reach a delineation agreement. Diplomats point out that a negotiated partition will not go down well in the European Union and will also prepare the ground for Turkey to annex the north.
North becomes part of Turkey: This is the worst-case scenario as Cypriots (from both sides) would not have a say in the northern part of the island, which would be administered by Ankara. Also the Green Line will be a hard border between a severely diminished RoC and Turkey.
Territorial adjustments and property arrangements would be out of the question. People in the north, even hardliners, are reacting against such a prospect. However, it is systematically promoted by Turkish President Erdogan’s senior Adviser Yigit Bulut, and strengthened by Turkish government projects to provide water and electricity connecting the north with the mainland.
Barbaros is back
A Turkish NAVTEX notice regarding the seismic research vessel Barbaros goes into force on Sunday, prompting the Republic of Cyprus to issue counter messages to mariners in the area.
The Barbaros Hayreddin Pasa and vessel Bravo Supporter will sail in areas off Cyprus, including parts of the Republic’s Exclusive Economic Zone, in an area reserved through June 30.
Today is also the last day for gunnery exercises, according to additional NAVTEX notices issued by Turkish authorities in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, where a Turkish warship was towing an “underwater device”.
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The passage of Barbaros into international waters off Cyprus overlaps with parts of Cyprus’ EEZ, and it comes at a crucial juncture of what observers call very fragile peace talks.
The head of energy operations in the north, Turkish Cypriot Sunat Atun, said Barbaros obtained all the necessary permits from his office to begin a “second round of exploratory drilling”, following an initial drilling phase in the Sygkrasi/Sinirustu region.
The Republic of Cyprus issued counter messages to all mariners in the area, notifying them that the NAVTEX alerts were unlawful and violated the country’s sovereign rights. But Atun accused the RoC government for moving rapidly on natural gas exploration, saying that this was a double standard.
Barbaros is not expected to enter any area in the south where drilling is expected later this summer.