By Lefteris Adilinis
Let’s get things straight from the start.
The talks between Nicos Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci, between January 9 and January 11 along with the five party Conference for Cyprus (Greek Cypriots, Turkish Cypriots and guarantors Turkey, Greece and Britain) on January 12 will not solve the longstanding political problem.
Insiders told The Cyprus Weekly/in-cyprus.com that Anastasiades and Akinci are not expected to engage in a final give-and-take exercise and the guarantor powers won’t put signatures to a new security framework.
That doesn’t mean, though, that the Geneva Cyprus summit is not essential.
For the first time since the referendums of 2004, all parties involved will be asked to show their hand on all aspects of the Cyprus problem, including thorny issues like territory and guarantees.
More importantly, after Thursday, Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots will know where they stand and what exactly the final trade-off session will entail.
ANASTASIADES ARRIVES IN GENEVA FOR CRUCIAL CONFERENCE
The Geneva conference is going to be the venue where Britain and Greece (as well as the Cypriot leaders) will get a glimpse of the real position of Turkey on security. Diplomatic sources have repeatedly suggested that this week’s Geneva summit will not be the last and, before there is closure at least, a second Cyprus conference will have to follow in the near future.
The two sides though will be in a position to understand whether a final and comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus problem is feasible or not.
“Small” … talk
Leaders Anastasiades and Akinci met “unofficially” on Sunday night in Geneva to discuss the agenda of the talks and agreed to meet six times before the January 12 conference.
The two negotiating teams are expected to discuss the outstanding issues in all aspects of the talks, ranging from governance to economy, European affairs, property and territory.
AKINCI: TIME IS WORKING AGAINST A CYPRUS SOLUTION
The The Cyprus Weekly/in-cyprus.com talked to all parties involved and spotted quite different approaches as far as the preparation are concerned.
Some insiders insist that Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots haven’t done any serious preparation in Cyprus. The negotiators, Andreas Mavroyiannis and Ozdil Nami, say privately that some progress was achieved during their recent meetings last month.
In reality and despite the rhetoric Anastasiades and Akinci’s teams are not ready, three days of talks are not enough to close chapters. This has also been confirmed by informed sources that are also convinced that Turkish Cypriots will produce a map with territorial adjustments this time round.
It is not expected, though, to be in line with the Greek Cypriot map which will also be tabled on 11 January.
The conference
Nobody on Sunday could say for sure whether the President of Turkey, Tayyip Erdogan, will attend the Conference for Cyprus on January 12.
Until some days ago, Turkish officials were insisting that Erdogan will be present.
Last Saturday though, Turkish officials were briefing journalists that PM Binalo Yildirim will attend the conference presenting the country’s and his leader’s positions.
If Erdogan won’t be in Geneva, then the possibility to get even remotely close to a deal on security is highly unlikely. The decision of the Turkish President not to attend could start a domino effect from the British and Greek Prime Ministers, Teresa May and Alexis Tsipras, complicating things even further.
State radio on Monday morning claimed that British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson would fly out to Geneva while Prime Minister Theresa May could join him if Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Erdogan also decide to attend.
In any case, diplomats were saying to The Cyprus Weekly/in-cyprus.com that the good scenario at the Geneva conference is for the Turkish side to come up with proposals which would allow in-island negotiations to continue aiming to reach a deal at a second summit in Switzerland as soon as possible.
That is after a referendum in Turkey for constitutional reform and before a full campaign for the presidential elections of 2018 starts in RoC.